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Papers

Research notes in environmental data science: seismology, space weather, climate, hydrology, and the cross-domain bits where everything starts to look the same. They are the workspaces of the Data Lab at TerraPulse, a measured-data platform for climate and geophysical data. I am its architect.

Most of this is unfinished, and none of it is peer reviewed. 25 of the 45 notes are credited in the source data to an AI agent. 38 more studies are not listed: the project that produced them withdrew them from its own site, so nothing from them is published here.

The index, counted

fewermore

Where each note stands45 listed
Notes per status
accepted5
complete6
in review3
in revision1
active1
draft29

A note’s place in the lab’s own workflow. Accepted means the lab’s internal review passed it; no journal was involved.

What is in iton this site
Listed here45
Figure shown43 of 45
Paper PDF on this site1 of 45
Withdrawn at source, not shown38

These count what is mirrored on this site. More of the notes have figures and a compiled paper in their workspace at the lab than are shown here.

When each was startednewest Sep 2026
Notes started per month, March 2026 to October 2026
tallest 22 notes
Notes started per month, March 2026 to October 2026
Bucketnotes
March 202622
April 20269
May 20265
June 20260
July 20260
August 20262
September 20266
October 20260

Counted by the date each workspace was created. Only the notes still listed are counted, so a month can look quieter here than it was. 1 note has no start date in the source and is not drawn.

papers-data.json, generated Oct 2, 2026

The notes

The note with a published results table comes first; the rest run newest first. A figure opens at full size. Every card links to its workspace on terrapulse.info, where the work is written out.

Domain

All 45 notes.11 of 45 notes: seismology.8 of 45 notes: space weather.5 of 45 notes: climate.5 of 45 notes: cross-domain.3 of 45 notes: hydrology.2 of 45 notes: radiation.11 of 45 notes: other.

Figure from "Cross-Domain Temporal Clustering Atlas: Inter-Event Time Analysis Across Environmental Metrics" (opens in a new tab)

Cross-domaindraftMar 2026

Cross-Domain Temporal Clustering Atlas: Inter-Event Time Analysis Across Environmental Metrics

Applying the coefficient of variation (CV) inter-event time method proven on earthquakes (CV=1.545) to CMEs, radiation spikes, geomagnetic storms, AQI exceedances, and flood events. Building a clustering atlas across domains.

The 1.545 above is the parent study’s result, Temporal Clustering of Global M4+ Earthquakes, measured on 118,009 M4.0+ earthquakes from 2021 to 2026. This atlas counted its own earthquake streams, so the M4+ figure in its key finding comes from a different set of events.

Key findingCV above 1

12 of 12 event streams bunch in time: the gaps between events vary more than random timing would give.

Time between events, the first 6 of 12 streams
Event streamCV (random = 1)
Earthquakes M4+82,189 events, mildly clustered1.17
Earthquakes M5+9,836 events, mildly clustered1.30
Earthquakes M6+836 events, clustered1.32
Kp Storms (≥4)12,804 events, clustered60.58
Kp Major (≥5)5,914 events, clustered55.81
CME Events9,043 events, clustered21.49

CV is the coefficient of variation of the time between events: its spread over its mean. Random timing gives 1; above 1, events come in bunches with long quiet gaps between.

13 data files, interactive figure in the workspaceRead the paperPDF, 404 KB (opens in a new tab)Workspace on terrapulse.info (opens in a new tab)
Figure from "Three Aftershocks, or 183? Same Size Quake, Either Answer.", top part (opens in a new tab)

The top of a taller figure. It opens whole.

in revisionSep 2026

Three Aftershocks, or 183? Same Size Quake, Either Answer.

Loma Prieta produced 80 aftershocks of magnitude 3 and above in its first month, squarely in the middle of its era.

Rest of the abstract

The record around it swings sixtyfold across nearly identical magnitudes, and the obvious explanation does not survive the data.

11 data filesWorkspace on terrapulse.info (opens in a new tab)
Figure from "When One Report Says Golf-Ball Hail, How Often Does the Next One Disagree?" (opens in a new tab)

draftSep 2026

When One Report Says Golf-Ball Hail, How Often Does the Next One Disagree?

Same-storm pairs of US hail reports, 1996-2025: of the neighbouring reports within a mile of a golf-ball report, 43.1% came in below golf-ball size (2010-2025), rising to 61.9% at 15 to 30 miles, against 78.5% for a report with no link. The basis risk a report-based trigger inherits, measured on NCEI Storm Events.

7 data filesWorkspace on terrapulse.info (opens in a new tab)
No preview figure

in reviewSep 2026

How Many Rain Days Does a Jobsite Actually Lose?

How many working days does a US jobsite actually lose to rain, measured hour by hour in local time rather than inferred from daily totals?

7 data filesWorkspace on terrapulse.info (opens in a new tab)
Figure from "CNEOS fireball day-of-year vs. meteor-shower calendar (1998-2026)" (opens in a new tab)

Space weatheracceptedMay 2026

CNEOS fireball day-of-year vs. meteor-shower calendar (1998-2026)

CNEOS fireball day-of-year tested against 12 named meteor shower peaks. Clean null after deduplication: Schuster p=0.22, zero showers survive Bonferroni at any window width.

Rest of the abstract

Detection floor at N=355 is rate ratio >=1.96 (Bonferroni-12); optical-bolide Geminid ratios of 1.3-1.5 are below the floor.

2 data files, interactive figure in the workspaceWorkspace on terrapulse.info (opens in a new tab)
Figure from "M6.6 Sanriku 2026-05-15: foreshock signature and Bath's-law test" (opens in a new tab)

SeismologycompleteMay 2026

M6.6 Sanriku 2026-05-15: foreshock signature and Bath's-law test

On 2026-05-15 a M6.6 earthquake struck offshore Sanriku, NE Japan (~39.03N, 141.81E), in the Pacific-Plate subduction zone where the 2011 Tohoku M9.1 mainshock occurred.

4 data files, interactive figure in the workspaceWorkspace on terrapulse.info (opens in a new tab)
Figure from "Solar Wind to Kp Storm Onset Lag Time Distribution" (opens in a new tab)

Space weathercompleteApr 2026

Solar Wind to Kp Storm Onset Lag Time Distribution

Research question: What is the empirical distribution of lag times between a southward IMF Bz excursion (DSCOVR L1 measurement) and the resulting Kp index increase indicating geomagnetic storm onset?

4 data files, interactive figure in the workspaceWorkspace on terrapulse.info (opens in a new tab)
No preview figure

SeismologyactiveApr 2026

April 2026 Offshore Washington Swarm: Ridge, Not Subduction Zone

Fact-check of claims that an earthquake swarm off Washington coast is occurring in the Cascadia Subduction Zone. USGS data shows the swarm at ~129°W on the Juan de Fuca Ridge, ~400 km west of the CSZ trench.

1 data file, interactive figure in the workspaceWorkspace on terrapulse.info (opens in a new tab)
Figure from "Earthquake-Weather Coupling: Barometric Pressure Trigger Hypothesis" (opens in a new tab)

SeismologydraftApr 2026

Earthquake-Weather Coupling: Barometric Pressure Trigger Hypothesis

Test whether rapid drops in atmospheric pressure trigger small earthquakes. The folk-science hypothesis says storm fronts reduce confining stress on shallow faults and should elevate seismicity by 0.1-1%. Controlled studies generally find no effect.

5 data filesWorkspace on terrapulse.info (opens in a new tab)
Figure from "NWS Alert Cascades: Cross-Domain Temporal Prediction Networks" (opens in a new tab)

Cross-domaindraftApr 2026

NWS Alert Cascades: Cross-Domain Temporal Prediction Networks

Do flood warnings predict landslide advisories? Do heat advisories predict air quality alerts? Build a temporal cascade network from the NWS alert stream.

5 data files, interactive figure in the workspaceWorkspace on terrapulse.info (opens in a new tab)
Figure from "NEO close approaches: flyby distance/velocity patterns and fireball correlation" (opens in a new tab)

Space weatheracceptedApr 2026

NEO close approaches: flyby distance/velocity patterns and fireball correlation

Do near-Earth object close approach patterns correlate with fireball events? Are there temporal clusters in flyby distance or velocity?

4 data files, interactive figure in the workspaceWorkspace on terrapulse.info (opens in a new tab)
Figure from "Lunar tidal signal in inland rivers: gravitational forcing on USGS streamflow" (opens in a new tab)

HydrologyacceptedApr 2026

Lunar tidal signal in inland rivers: gravitational forcing on USGS streamflow

Can we detect a lunar tidal signal in inland river streamflow? The gravitational tidal force acts on all mass, not just oceans, but the effect on rivers should be extremely small.

4 data files, interactive figure in the workspaceWorkspace on terrapulse.info (opens in a new tab)
Figure from "ENSO-Severe Weather Coupling: NWS Alerts vs El Nino/La Nina Phases" (opens in a new tab)

ClimatedraftApr 2026

ENSO-Severe Weather Coupling: NWS Alerts vs El Nino/La Nina Phases

Does ENSO modulate NWS alert rates? Monthly alert counts stratified by ONI phase. La Nina → more tornadoes? El Nino → more floods? Fire weather vs drought index.

6 data files, interactive figure in the workspaceWorkspace on terrapulse.info (opens in a new tab)
Figure from "DONKI Event Catalog: Cascade Triggers in the Sun-to-Ground Chain" (opens in a new tab)

RadiationacceptedMar 2026

DONKI Event Catalog: Cascade Triggers in the Sun-to-Ground Chain

SEA of 1,809 DONKI events: storms peak Kp at T+6h (+47%), HSS +6%, radiation belt lags by 38h. CME speed negatively correlates with Kp (r=-0.18) due to catalog selection bias.

10 data files, interactive figure in the workspaceWorkspace on terrapulse.info (opens in a new tab)
Figure from "NWS Severe Weather Baseline: Alert Patterns and Geographic Distribution" (opens in a new tab)

Cross-domaincompleteMar 2026

NWS Severe Weather Baseline: Alert Patterns and Geographic Distribution

Baseline analysis of 550K NWS alerts (45 types, 8 days) + 69K historical tornado reports (1950-2023). 80% marine, 63x diurnal swing, May tornado peak, Kp cross-domain null. Foundation for dashboard and cross-domain work.

7 data files, interactive figure in the workspaceWorkspace on terrapulse.info (opens in a new tab)
Figure from "X1.5 Solar Flare Watch: March 29, 2026" (opens in a new tab)

Space weathercompleteMar 2026

X1.5 Solar Flare Watch: March 29, 2026

X1.5 flare (largest in 12.6M GOES readings) + 1,845 km/s CME. 6-entry lab notebook tracking the event over 60h. CME did not impact Earth. Successful infrastructure test of 7-stream monitoring pipeline.

7 data files, interactive figure in the workspaceWorkspace on terrapulse.info (opens in a new tab)
Figure from "March 2026 Fireball Cluster: Statistical Significance and Space Weather Context" (opens in a new tab)

Space weatherdraftMar 2026

March 2026 Fireball Cluster: Statistical Significance and Space Weather Context

Testing whether the March 2026 fireball cluster (11 events in 20 days, 3 meteorite falls) is statistically significant against the CNEOS historical baseline. Cross-correlating with TerraPulse space weather data to test solar activity connection.

8 data files, interactive figure in the workspaceWorkspace on terrapulse.info (opens in a new tab)
Figure from "Global Environmental Radiation Baseline from Citizen Science: Signal vs Sampling Bias" (opens in a new tab)

RadiationdraftMar 2026

Global Environmental Radiation Baseline from Citizen Science: Signal vs Sampling Bias

Separating physical radiation patterns from observational campaign clustering in 679K Safecast measurements across 45 countries. Can citizen science data establish a reliable global radiation baseline?

2 data files, interactive figure in the workspaceWorkspace on terrapulse.info (opens in a new tab)
Figure from "Temporal Clustering of Global M4+ Earthquakes: Spatial clustering" (opens in a new tab)

SeismologydraftMar 2026

Temporal Clustering of Global M4+ Earthquakes: Spatial clustering

Derivative study expanding on: Spatial clustering. nearest-neighbor distance analysis Parent study: Temporal Clustering of Global M4+ Earthquakes (earthquake-temporal-clustering)

4 data files, interactive figure in the workspaceWorkspace on terrapulse.info (opens in a new tab)
Figure from "Compound Environmental Anomalies: Multi-Metric Unusual Days" (opens in a new tab)

Cross-domaindraftMar 2026

Compound Environmental Anomalies: Multi-Metric Unusual Days

Detecting days where multiple environmental metrics are simultaneously anomalous using Z-score analysis and Isolation Forest. When earthquakes, space weather, and air quality all spike together: is it coincidence or connection?

2 data files, interactive figure in the workspaceWorkspace on terrapulse.info (opens in a new tab)
Figure from "Solar Flux–Kp Index Time Lag: Paper Replication Study" (opens in a new tab)

Space weatherdraftMar 2026

Solar Flux–Kp Index Time Lag: Paper Replication Study

Replicating Georgieva & Kirov (2010) claim that the correlation between solar activity and geomagnetic activity varies with a changing time lag. Testing with NOAA SWPC solar flux and Kp index data.

5 data files, interactive figure in the workspaceWorkspace on terrapulse.info (opens in a new tab)
Figure from "ENSO Teleconnection to Global Seismicity: Replication Study" (opens in a new tab)

SeismologydraftMar 2026

ENSO Teleconnection to Global Seismicity: Replication Study

Replicating and extending published claims that El Niño/La Niña phases modulate global earthquake rates. Testing crustal loading hypothesis via sea level redistribution. Using 76 years of ONI data and 5 years of USGS M4+ earthquake records.

8 data files, interactive figure in the workspaceWorkspace on terrapulse.info (opens in a new tab)
Figure from "Solar Activity and Earthquake Frequency: Is There a Signal?" (opens in a new tab)

SeismologydraftMar 2026

Solar Activity and Earthquake Frequency: Is There a Signal?

Testing the controversial hypothesis that solar activity (CMEs, solar flux, geomagnetic storms) correlates with earthquake frequency or magnitude. Using NOAA SWPC, NASA DONKI, and USGS earthquake data.

8 data files, interactive figure in the workspaceWorkspace on terrapulse.info (opens in a new tab)
Figure from "Temporal Clustering of Global M4+ Earthquakes" (opens in a new tab)

SeismologydraftMar 2026

Temporal Clustering of Global M4+ Earthquakes

Analyzing whether significant earthquakes cluster in time beyond what random (Poisson) occurrence would predict. Testing the hypothesis of earthquake triggering: does one large quake increase the probability of subsequent events?

3 data files, interactive figure in the workspaceWorkspace on terrapulse.info (opens in a new tab)

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papers-data.json, generated Oct 2, 2026

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